New Home Sales Jumped 8.3%

On September 25, 2013, in Economic Updates, 

by Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics and Housing Finance Policy

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/25/latest-new-home-sales-2/

NAR: Declining Distressed Sales

Economic Updates, by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/09/declining-distressed-sales/

Mortgage originations defy interest rate hikes

inmanNEWS
http://www.inman.com/wire/mortgage-originations-defy-interest-rate-hikes/

Mortgage originations rose 12.7% (year over year).  

This Indicates stability despite increases in interest rates.  

Prepayment activity driving origination volume. (Good indicator of mortgage refinances)

"Prepayment speeds have been impacted by the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates...  For the year to date, 2013 has produced the lowest level of foreclosure starts since 2007.  Given that nearly 50 percent of these are repeat foreclosures means that the picture is even more positive than a surface reading of the numbers might suggest."

Herb Blecher

LPS Data & Analytics Senior Vice President 

Higher Lot Prices = Higher New Home Prices

Julie Schmit, USA TODAY
Higher lot prices may boost new home prices
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/03/finished-lot-prices-new-homes/2736655/

1.)     Home builders are paying higher prices for construction ready lots in many major markets.
2.)     New homes could get more expensive in the coming months as a shortage of suitable lots            drives up builders costs.
3.)     Construction spending rises to four year high.
4.)     Finished lot prices represent almost 22% of a new home's price.
5.)     Builders expect future homes prices will cover their higher lot costs.

"Don't expect lot prices to keep growing at their current pace.  As developers and builders refill the pipeline, price gains will slow."  
David Crowe
Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders.