Housing: 5 Things To Watch in 2014 (WSJ)

WSJ Article

1.)  Inventory?

2.)  New Construction?

3.)  Mortgage Credit?

4.)  Investors?

5.)  Housing Affordability?

"More Normal Seasonal Market."

Real Estate Market Continues to Recover and Improve.

Market Confidence Continues to Grow.

Interest Rates Are Still At 50 Year Lows. 

Back To A "More Normal Seasonal Market."

5 Housing Predictions for 2014 (CBS Money Watch)

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/5-predictions-for-housing-in-2014/#20156594
ByILYCE GLINK

Florida Market Report: December 2013

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_zViGWzpC3MWDI3Tk1NNXF6VUU/edit?usp=sharing

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_zViGWzpC3MeTIxamlZektocjQ/edit?usp=sharing

Naples, FL Market Report: December 2013

http://nabor.com/zzdwnlds/news/NABORNov2013MarketReport2.pdf

National Market Report: Dec. 2013

http://files.a2.remax.com/content/REMAX_National_Housing_Report_Dec_2013.pdf?rmxaid=20320645

Investors Continue To Be Active

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/12/31/investors-continue-to-be-active-in-the-residential-market/

Modest Price Increases Expected For The Next 12 months (NAR)

Median Expected Price Increase:  3.7% 

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/01/06/realtors%C2%AE-expect-prices-to-increase-modestly-in-next-12-months/

Economy grew at 3.6% rate in Q3, best in 1.5 years

Revised estimate is much higher than 2.8% first estimated.
Inventory buildup accounts for half of the economy's growth.
More investment shows business confidence, but inventory glut may slow 4th quarter growth.

USA TODAY, Tim Mullaney
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/05/third-quarter-gdp/3877049/

Reasons For Low Inventory

Many Homeowners Are Still Underwater.
Selling a Home Can Be Costly.

Continued Tight Credit Conditions.

Housing Boom & Bust Fallout.

Homeowners Are Taking a Longer Term View of The Housing Market.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/why-so-few-houses-for-sale-lots-of-reasons-2013-12-09

12 Month Expected Real Estate Price Growth: State by State

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/12/09/expected-price-growth-strongest-in-west-and-south-markets/

"West and in the South expect the highest price increase in the range of about 4-8 percent. 

Tight inventory continues to bolster prices in these areas."

Naples, FL Market Report: November 2013

National Market Report: Nov. 2013

Naples, Florida Market Report: 3Q 2013

Florida Market Report: November 2013

Housing Recovery Continues

National Market Report: October 2013

New Home Sales Jumped 8.3%

On September 25, 2013, in Economic Updates, 

by Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics and Housing Finance Policy

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/25/latest-new-home-sales-2/

NAR: Declining Distressed Sales

Economic Updates, by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/09/declining-distressed-sales/

Mortgage originations defy interest rate hikes

inmanNEWS
http://www.inman.com/wire/mortgage-originations-defy-interest-rate-hikes/

Mortgage originations rose 12.7% (year over year).  

This Indicates stability despite increases in interest rates.  

Prepayment activity driving origination volume. (Good indicator of mortgage refinances)

"Prepayment speeds have been impacted by the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates...  For the year to date, 2013 has produced the lowest level of foreclosure starts since 2007.  Given that nearly 50 percent of these are repeat foreclosures means that the picture is even more positive than a surface reading of the numbers might suggest."

Herb Blecher

LPS Data & Analytics Senior Vice President