Economy grew at 3.6% rate in Q3, best in 1.5 years

Revised estimate is much higher than 2.8% first estimated.
Inventory buildup accounts for half of the economy's growth.
More investment shows business confidence, but inventory glut may slow 4th quarter growth.

USA TODAY, Tim Mullaney
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/12/05/third-quarter-gdp/3877049/

Reasons For Low Inventory

Many Homeowners Are Still Underwater.
Selling a Home Can Be Costly.

Continued Tight Credit Conditions.

Housing Boom & Bust Fallout.

Homeowners Are Taking a Longer Term View of The Housing Market.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/why-so-few-houses-for-sale-lots-of-reasons-2013-12-09

12 Month Expected Real Estate Price Growth: State by State

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/12/09/expected-price-growth-strongest-in-west-and-south-markets/

"West and in the South expect the highest price increase in the range of about 4-8 percent. 

Tight inventory continues to bolster prices in these areas."

Naples, FL Market Report: November 2013

National Market Report: Nov. 2013

Naples, Florida Market Report: 3Q 2013

Florida Market Report: November 2013

Housing Recovery Continues

National Market Report: October 2013

New Home Sales Jumped 8.3%

On September 25, 2013, in Economic Updates, 

by Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics and Housing Finance Policy

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/25/latest-new-home-sales-2/

NAR: Declining Distressed Sales

Economic Updates, by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/09/09/declining-distressed-sales/

Mortgage originations defy interest rate hikes

inmanNEWS
http://www.inman.com/wire/mortgage-originations-defy-interest-rate-hikes/

Mortgage originations rose 12.7% (year over year).  

This Indicates stability despite increases in interest rates.  

Prepayment activity driving origination volume. (Good indicator of mortgage refinances)

"Prepayment speeds have been impacted by the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates...  For the year to date, 2013 has produced the lowest level of foreclosure starts since 2007.  Given that nearly 50 percent of these are repeat foreclosures means that the picture is even more positive than a surface reading of the numbers might suggest."

Herb Blecher

LPS Data & Analytics Senior Vice President 

Higher Lot Prices = Higher New Home Prices

Julie Schmit, USA TODAY
Higher lot prices may boost new home prices
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/03/finished-lot-prices-new-homes/2736655/

1.)     Home builders are paying higher prices for construction ready lots in many major markets.
2.)     New homes could get more expensive in the coming months as a shortage of suitable lots            drives up builders costs.
3.)     Construction spending rises to four year high.
4.)     Finished lot prices represent almost 22% of a new home's price.
5.)     Builders expect future homes prices will cover their higher lot costs.

"Don't expect lot prices to keep growing at their current pace.  As developers and builders refill the pipeline, price gains will slow."  
David Crowe
Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Realtor Confidence Index, Report & Market Outlook: June 2013

FULL DETAILED REPORT:
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/08/30/rising-rents-for-residential-properties/

Single Family homes: “strong” at 71. 

Townhouses: 51. 

Condominiums approaching 50.  

The survey was sent to a random sample of about 50,000 REALTORS®.

The Index is calculated as a weighted average of the responses, evaluated at 

0-Weak, 50-Moderate, and 100-Strong.

USA Today: Home equity loans make a comeback.

Susan Tompor, USA TODAY

Full Article:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/tompor/2013/08/24/home-equity-credit-card-debt/2682097/

Home Prices Rise and Stabilize: 

1.)  Lenders are more willing to lend.

2.)  Borrowers feel more secure about tapping into their equity.

Potential Requirements: 

20% equity retention

720 credit score or higher

An appraisal

Verify Employment

Proof of income 

A loan minimum.  20K or more.

2-4 week time frame for the loan.

The average rate on a home equity loan is 6.14%. 

The average rate on a home equity line of credit is 4.99%

Bankrate.com.

The Recent Effect Of Rising Interest Rates

Media Contact: Walter Molony

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/08/july-pending-home-sales-slip

National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun:

Rising interest rates caused an initial surge in closed sales then a slight pause in pending sales. Closed sales have not decreased at this point.  

Overall:

Recent months of pending contracts are “still the highest activity level since 2006.”

The real estate market “momentum is still solid” 

Interest Rates are still close to a 60 year low.  

Affordability is at an all time high, which is why there is a strong demand for more housing.        

There is a housing shortage which puts pressure on builders to meet this demand in the market.   “the current inventory is at a historic low point” 

Largest decline in Shadow Inventory since the housing crisis began.

Megan Hopkins

35% drop (annualized basis).

23% drop (year over year)

[Compass Point Research & Trading]

Fewer Homes In The Foreclosure Pipeline Has Resulted From:

A decline in 90+ past due loans.

An increase in prices, which has motivated people to repair their situation.

An improvement in mortgage credit quality.

The decline is expected to continue as servicers push to resolve delinquent inventory.

Forbes: Trulia Chief economist; “market 64% back to normal.”

Key market Trends: Dave Liniger (RE/MAX Co-Founder & Chairman)

By Teresa Walsh

“New Construction Will Experience Robust Growth For The Next Decade…”   

“The Beginning Of A New Homes Boom!”

Factors:

1.) High demand, low inventory: Resales are not enough.

2.) New household formation:  Historically lows are now picking up.

3.) Population Growth: Specifically Immigration.

“Builders need to pick up the pace...and deliver"

Areas:

1.) More housing

2.) Numerous styles.  

3.) Multiple price points.  

FLORIDA Market Report: July 2013